The Arizona races, by the polls worth reading
The race board
Every race on Arizona ballots with at least one poll that meets our bar. A dot is the average of the latest poll from each pollster that meets the bar in the past 30 days; with fewer than 3 such pollsters, the polls show one by one. The shading shows how far Arizona’s final polls have typically missed. Updated Oct. 23.
This board shows every race on Arizona ballots this fall with at least one poll that meets our bar, how each race leans in those polls, and how far to trust the lead. It doesn't predict a winner: a poll describes a race on the days it was taken, and final polls have missed before.
Race by race
Every poll since the nominees were set. Filled dots count toward the average lines; hollow dots were set aside. Hover or tap a poll for who ran it and why it counts.
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, July 28: Hobbs 52%, Biggs 44% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). Tarrance Group, July 30: Hobbs 52%, Biggs 48%. Noble Predictive, Aug. 13: Hobbs 48%, Biggs 35%, Lombardo 2%, Hourihan 1%. Stealth Analytics, Aug. 13: Hobbs 43%, Biggs 38%, Lombardo 1%, Hourihan 0% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Kreate Strategies, Aug. 16: Hobbs 45%, Biggs 40%, Hourihan 1.6%, Lombardo 1.1% (set aside: Paid for by a Republican group). Quantus, Aug. 17: Hobbs 49.1%, Biggs 43.2% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). HighGround, Aug. 18: Hobbs 49.5%, Biggs 34.3%, Hourihan 2.2%, Lombardo 0.8% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). NextGen, Aug. 19: Hobbs 39%, Biggs 37.5%, Lombardo 0.7%, Hourihan 0.6% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Arizona State University, Sept. 4: Hobbs 47%, Biggs 34%, Lombardo 1%, Hourihan 2% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). Equis Research, Sept. 9: Hobbs 49%, Biggs 43% (set aside: Paid for by a Democratic group). GQR, Oct. 5: Hobbs 49%, Biggs 45%, Hourihan 2%, Lombardo 1% (set aside: Paid for by the Democratic campaign). Wick, Oct. 6: Hobbs 48.9%, Biggs 43.2% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). GrayHouse, Oct. 8: Hobbs 50%, Biggs 44%, Hourihan 1%, Lombardo 1% (set aside: Paid for by the Republican campaign). HighGround, Oct. 8: Hobbs 50.5%, Biggs 33.7%, Hourihan 2.7%, Lombardo 1.3% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C)
Is the lead bigger than the error?
A poll’s margin of error applies to each candidate’s share. The error on the gap between them is close to twice as large. Bars show each pollster’s latest lead; whiskers show the error on that lead.
Aug. 13 | 923 LV
July 30 | 600 LV
How to read a lead
A poll's margin of error, usually 3 to 4 points, applies to each candidate's share. The error on the gap between two candidates is close to twice as large. So a 4-point lead in a poll with a 3.5-point margin of error is inside the error: the race could be tied.
Averages help. When several good pollsters agree, a lead is more believable than any single poll. But averages miss too, and the shading on the race board shows how far final polling averages here have missed in recent top races.
Who’s polling Arizona
Every pollster in these races, its rating, and whether its numbers count. Ratings are Silver Bulletin’s (January 2026) or membership in AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative.
| Pollster | Rating | Method | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive | B+ | Online panel (opt-in) | |
| Tarrance Group | A/B | – | |
| Arizona State University | B/C | Mixed (cell phone, landline and text-to-web; probability and nonprobability samples) | Governor, Sept. 4: Hobbs 47, Biggs 34, Lombardo 1, Hourihan 2 (1,300 RV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Secretary of state, Sept. 4: Fontes 39, Kolodin 35, Collier 3 (1,300 RV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C |
| Equis Research | Unrated | Mixed (50% live phone, 50% text-to-web) | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Mixed (live phone to cell 40% and landline 15%; SMS-to-web 45%) | |
| Global Strategy Group | B/C | – | |
| GQR | Unrated | – | Governor, Oct. 5: Hobbs 49, Biggs 45, Hourihan 2, Lombardo 1 – Set aside: Paid for by the Democratic campaign |
| GrayHouse | Unrated | Mixed (SMS text-to-web 60%, live cell 39%, live landline 1%) | Governor, Oct. 8: Hobbs 50, Biggs 44, Hourihan 1, Lombardo 1 (550 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by the Republican campaign Attorney general, Oct. 8: Mayes 48, Petersen 46 (550 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by the Republican campaign Secretary of state, Oct. 8: Fontes 48, Kolodin 42, Collier 1 (550 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by the Republican campaign |
| HighGround | B/C | Live phone (landline and cell) | Governor, Oct. 8: Hobbs 50.5, Biggs 33.7, Hourihan 2.7, Lombardo 1.3 (400 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Secretary of state, Oct. 8: Fontes 45.5, Kolodin 33.8, Collier 3 (400 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Governor, Aug. 18: Hobbs 49.5, Biggs 34.3, Hourihan 2.2, Lombardo 0.8 (400 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Secretary of state, Aug. 18: Fontes 43, Kolodin 35.3, Collier 3 (400 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C |
| Kreate Strategies | Unrated | Online panel | Governor, Aug. 16: Hobbs 45, Biggs 40, Hourihan 1.6, Lombardo 1.1 (900 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group Attorney general, Aug. 16: Mayes 41.4, Petersen 37.5 (900 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group |
| NextGen | Unrated | Text-to-web | Governor, Aug. 19: Hobbs 39, Biggs 37.5, Lombardo 0.7, Hourihan 0.6 (1,627 RV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated |
| Quantus | B/C | Mixed (online panel + SMS-to-web) | |
| Stealth Analytics | Unrated | Text-to-web (SMS) | |
| Wick | B/C | Text-to-web (SMS) |
Photos: Arizona House of Representatives; Arizona State Senate (photo: Brian Bossert); Office of the Arizona State Treasurer (photo: Christopher Barr); Photo: Duwayne Collier campaign; Photo: Kris Mayes campaign; Photo: Megan Robbins Photography / Fontes campaign; Photo: Teresa Leyba Ruiz campaign.
How Arizona’s final polls compared with the results
Final polling average (hollow) and the result (filled), in points. On average the polls missed by 2.7 points; that’s the shading on the race board.
How we pick polls
A poll counts toward the board when it clears every one of these:
- A rated pollster: a Silver Bulletin grade of B or better (its January 2026 ratings), or membership in the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative.
- Voters, not all adults: likely or registered voters, or simply "voters" when that's all the pollster says.
- At least 400 interviews.
- The real matchup: finished after the nominees were set, asking about the candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot.
- No partisan sponsor: a poll paid for by a campaign, a party or a partisan group is set aside, whichever side it favors, and so is a poll that a firm working mainly for one party's campaigns releases on its own.
- A published method: field dates, sample size, who was surveyed and how.
- Confirmed numbers: we read every number from the pollster's own release. A poll we couldn't confirm doesn't count.
The average is the plain mean of the latest poll from each qualifying pollster in the past 30 days, shown once three pollsters qualify. There is no weighting and no adjustment. With one or two qualifying pollsters, the board shows their polls one by one.
A race with no poll that meets the bar isn't on the board; it joins when one is released. Races that elect more than one person aren't shown, since there's no single margin to show. Polls that don't meet the bar stay on the page, hollow, with the reason.
Candidate photos come from the campaigns or official portraits, shown in grayscale on each party's color, the same way for every candidate.
All times MST.
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